Research

The Hills and Wollondilly have Sydney's most intensive housing targets

Raw housing targets hide the scale of change asked of each Sydney council.

This article compares each council's five-year target with its 2026 housing base. It then uses 2025 ABS approvals as a separate measure of activity.

The Sydney Plan assigns 263,400 homes across 33 councils from 2024 to 2029. We compared each target with the council's 2026 Homes value in Appendix D. We then used official 2025 ABS Building Approvals data from our database as a separate measure of activity.

Target intensity shows the size of the policy target relative to the current housing base. Approval intensity shows one year of recorded approvals relative to the same base. Neither measure shows feasibility, construction or completed homes.

The Hills and Wollondilly carry the largest targets relative to their housing base

The Sydney Plan sets five-year housing targets for 33 local government areas. The 2024 to 2029 targets total 263,400 homes. We divided each target by the council's 2026 Homes value in Appendix D so that councils of different sizes can be compared.

The Hills ranks first at 28.9%. Wollondilly follows at 23.4%. Ryde is next at 19.8%, followed by Camden at 19.0% and Burwood at 18.6%. The median across all 33 council rates is 12.1%. This is an unweighted median, so each council contributes one target-intensity rate.

The Hills' five-year target is equal to almost 29% of its 2026 housing base

The ten highest 2024 to 2029 housing targets as a share of each LGA's 2026 Homes value. This compares policy targets with housing-stock scale. It does not forecast delivery.

  • 1The Hills28.9%
  • 2Wollondilly23.4%
  • 3Ryde19.8%
  • 4Camden19.0%
  • 5Burwood18.6%
  • 6Liverpool18.1%
  • 7Parramatta17.5%
  • 8Strathfield17.4%
  • 9Lane Cove17.0%
  • 10Ku-ring-gai15.9%
Highest intensity
28.9%
The Hills: 23,300 target homes against 80,658 existing homes
Second highest
23.4%
Wollondilly: 5,500 target homes against 23,527 existing homes
Sydney median
12.1%
Unweighted median of the 33 council rates

High target intensity appears in several parts of Sydney

The map shows target intensity for all 33 councils. The two highest results are in different outer growth areas. Other high results appear in western, inner and northern councils.

The largest relative targets are spread across several parts of Sydney

The two highest results sit in the north-west and south-west. The next group extends through Liverpool, Camden, Parramatta, Burwood, Strathfield, Lane Cove and Ryde. Darker blue shows a larger target relative to the 2026 housing base.

Sydney local government areas shaded by 2024 to 2029 housing target as a percentage of the 2026 housing base. The Hills is highest at 28.9 per cent and Wollondilly is second at 23.4 per cent.A choropleth of the 33 Sydney Plan local government areas. Exact values are available in the table after the map.Bayside: 12.7%Blacktown: 13.4%Blue Mountains: 1.6%Burwood: 18.6%Camden: 19.0%Campbelltown: 14.9%Canada Bay: 12.1%Canterbury-Bankstown: 10.2%Cumberland: 13.3%Fairfield: 8.1%Georges River: 9.8%Hawkesbury: 4.6%Hornsby: 9.4%Hunters Hill: 7.4%Inner West: 8.5%Ku-ring-gai: 15.9%Lane Cove: 17.0%Liverpool: 18.1%Mosman: 3.6%North Sydney: 14.6%Northern Beaches: 5.2%Parramatta: 17.5%Penrith: 9.5%Randwick: 6.1%Ryde: 19.8%Strathfield: 17.4%Sutherland: 6.1%Sydney: 14.1%The Hills: 28.9%Waverley: 6.7%Willoughby: 10.1%Wollondilly: 23.4%Woollahra: 6.6%
  • The Hills28.9%
  • Wollondilly23.4%
Five-year housing target as a share of the 2026 housing base
  1. 10% or less
  2. >10% to 15%
  3. >15% to 20%
  4. >20% to 25%
  5. More than 25%

Sydney median: 12.1%. Target intensity is not a delivery forecast.

View all 33 mapped values
All five-year housing target as a share of the 2026 housing base values for the 33 Sydney Plan local government areas
Local government areaTarget intensityContext
The Hills28.9%23,300 target homes; 80,658 homes in the 2026 baseline
Wollondilly23.4%5,500 target homes; 23,527 homes in the 2026 baseline
Ryde19.8%11,600 target homes; 58,576 homes in the 2026 baseline
Camden19.0%10,200 target homes; 53,762 homes in the 2026 baseline
Burwood18.6%3,300 target homes; 17,788 homes in the 2026 baseline
Liverpool18.1%16,700 target homes; 92,464 homes in the 2026 baseline
Parramatta17.5%19,500 target homes; 111,215 homes in the 2026 baseline
Strathfield17.4%3,500 target homes; 20,156 homes in the 2026 baseline
Lane Cove17.0%3,400 target homes; 20,005 homes in the 2026 baseline
Ku-ring-gai15.9%7,600 target homes; 47,858 homes in the 2026 baseline
Campbelltown14.9%10,500 target homes; 70,508 homes in the 2026 baseline
North Sydney14.6%5,900 target homes; 40,462 homes in the 2026 baseline
Sydney14.1%18,900 target homes; 134,394 homes in the 2026 baseline
Blacktown13.4%21,400 target homes; 160,283 homes in the 2026 baseline
Cumberland13.3%12,200 target homes; 92,011 homes in the 2026 baseline
Bayside12.7%10,100 target homes; 79,543 homes in the 2026 baseline
Canada Bay12.1%5,000 target homes; 41,159 homes in the 2026 baseline
Canterbury-Bankstown10.2%14,500 target homes; 142,518 homes in the 2026 baseline
Willoughby10.1%3,400 target homes; 33,513 homes in the 2026 baseline
Georges River9.8%6,300 target homes; 64,315 homes in the 2026 baseline
Penrith9.5%8,400 target homes; 88,466 homes in the 2026 baseline
Hornsby9.4%5,500 target homes; 58,439 homes in the 2026 baseline
Inner West8.5%7,800 target homes; 91,929 homes in the 2026 baseline
Fairfield8.1%5,900 target homes; 73,288 homes in the 2026 baseline
Hunters Hill7.4%400 target homes; 5,437 homes in the 2026 baseline
Waverley6.7%2,400 target homes; 35,954 homes in the 2026 baseline
Woollahra6.6%1,900 target homes; 28,951 homes in the 2026 baseline
Randwick6.1%4,000 target homes; 65,838 homes in the 2026 baseline
Sutherland6.1%6,000 target homes; 97,990 homes in the 2026 baseline
Northern Beaches5.2%5,900 target homes; 114,087 homes in the 2026 baseline
Hawkesbury4.6%1,300 target homes; 28,330 homes in the 2026 baseline
Mosman3.6%500 target homes; 14,048 homes in the 2026 baseline
Blue Mountains1.6%600 target homes; 37,646 homes in the 2026 baseline

Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, LGA 2025 boundaries, licensed under CC BY 4.0. Boundary source. Statistical boundaries are approximate and are not legal or cadastral boundaries.

Each high-intensity council faces a different delivery test

The map places high-intensity councils in different parts of Sydney. Each has a large five-year task relative to its housing base and needs separate checks of planning capacity, infrastructure, timing and market feasibility. The map cannot answer those questions.

The denominator moves Wollondilly and Burwood up the ranking

The Hills has Sydney's largest raw target and highest target intensity. The ranking changes more for other councils. Wollondilly's 5,500-home target ranks 21st by count. It ranks second against its 23,527-home base. Burwood ranks 27th by count. Its 3,300-home target equals 18.6% of its 17,788-home base, which puts it fifth by intensity.

The reverse can also occur. A council can have a large raw target but a lower target intensity because it starts with a larger housing base. Raw targets show where the largest number of additional homes is assigned. Target intensity shows where the assigned growth is largest relative to existing housing.

2025 approval intensity ranges from 0.5% to 5.1% in the leading target group

We used official 2025 ABS Building Approvals data stored in our database as a separate context check. A read-only query summed the 12 monthly values for each of the same 33 LGAs. The result includes 34,718 approved dwellings.

We divided each council's approvals by the same 2026 Homes baseline. This does not measure progress against the five-year target. It shows how one year of approval activity compares with the local housing base.

Approval intensity ranges from 0.5% to 5.1% across this group

Calendar-year 2025 approved dwellings as a share of the 2026 housing base for the same ten councils shown above. Approvals are not commencements, completions or proof of target progress.

  • The Hills5.1%
  • Wollondilly3.3%
  • Ryde2.5%
  • Camden3.0%
  • Burwood0.5%
  • Liverpool2.5%
  • Parramatta2.7%
  • Strathfield1.1%
  • Lane Cove2.6%
  • Ku-ring-gai1.2%
Highest of this group
5.1%
The Hills recorded 4,087 approved dwellings in 2025
Lowest of this group
0.5%
Burwood recorded 95 approved dwellings in 2025
Sydney LGA total
34,718
Approved dwellings across all 33 councils in calendar 2025

Canada Bay ranks second for 2025 approval intensity

The approvals map includes all 33 councils. Canada Bay has the second-highest 2025 approval intensity, while several high target-intensity councils have much lower approval intensity. The approval ranking does not show progress towards the target ranking.

Higher 2025 approval intensity appears in outer and inner councils

The Hills, Wollondilly and Camden are high in outer Sydney, while Canada Bay is the second-highest of all 33 councils. Darker blue shows more calendar-year approvals relative to the housing base, not progress against the targets.

Sydney local government areas shaded by calendar-year 2025 approved dwellings as a percentage of the 2026 housing base. The Hills is highest at 5.1 per cent.A choropleth of the 33 Sydney Plan local government areas. Exact values are available in the table after the map.Bayside: 2.2%Blacktown: 1.4%Blue Mountains: 0.3%Burwood: 0.5%Camden: 3.0%Campbelltown: 2.0%Canada Bay: 4.3%Canterbury-Bankstown: 1.1%Cumberland: 1.2%Fairfield: 1.3%Georges River: 1.3%Hawkesbury: 1.5%Hornsby: 0.8%Hunters Hill: 0.5%Inner West: 0.9%Ku-ring-gai: 1.2%Lane Cove: 2.6%Liverpool: 2.5%Mosman: 0.3%North Sydney: 1.5%Northern Beaches: 0.5%Parramatta: 2.7%Penrith: 1.3%Randwick: 0.7%Ryde: 2.5%Strathfield: 1.1%Sutherland: 1.2%Sydney: 1.5%The Hills: 5.1%Waverley: 0.4%Willoughby: 0.8%Wollondilly: 3.3%Woollahra: 0.6%
  • The Hills5.1%
  • Burwood0.5%
2025 approved dwellings as a share of the 2026 housing base
  1. 1% or less
  2. >1% to 2%
  3. >2% to 3%
  4. >3% to 4%
  5. More than 4%

This is one year of ABS Building Approvals activity. It is not target progress, commencements or completions.

View all 33 mapped values
All 2025 approved dwellings as a share of the 2026 housing base values for the 33 Sydney Plan local government areas
Local government areaApproval intensityContext
The Hills5.1%4,087 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Canada Bay4.3%1,765 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Wollondilly3.3%772 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Camden3.0%1,609 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Parramatta2.7%2,961 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Lane Cove2.6%511 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Liverpool2.5%2,335 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Ryde2.5%1,457 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Bayside2.2%1,734 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Campbelltown2.0%1,410 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Hawkesbury1.5%412 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
North Sydney1.5%613 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Sydney1.5%2,018 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Blacktown1.4%2,237 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Fairfield1.3%976 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Georges River1.3%854 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Penrith1.3%1,150 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Cumberland1.2%1,077 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Ku-ring-gai1.2%580 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Sutherland1.2%1,206 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Canterbury-Bankstown1.1%1,577 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Strathfield1.1%221 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Inner West0.9%848 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Hornsby0.8%460 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Willoughby0.8%272 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Randwick0.7%439 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Woollahra0.6%171 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Burwood0.5%95 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Hunters Hill0.5%29 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Northern Beaches0.5%523 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Waverley0.4%159 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Blue Mountains0.3%117 approved dwellings in calendar 2025
Mosman0.3%43 approved dwellings in calendar 2025

Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, LGA 2025 boundaries, licensed under CC BY 4.0. Boundary source. Statistical boundaries are approximate and are not legal or cadastral boundaries.

Approval activity does not follow the target ranking

The Hills had the highest 2025 approval intensity across all 33 councils. Canada Bay ranked second even though it was outside the ten highest target- intensity councils. Burwood had the lowest approval intensity among the ten highest target-intensity councils. Project timing, local conditions, major developments and data revisions can affect these results. The comparison does not explain the difference or predict what happens next.

Target intensity and approval intensity answer different questions

Target intensity compares a policy target with the homes already in a council. Approval intensity compares one year of approved dwellings with the same housing base. A target sets an ambition. An approval records an administrative decision at a different point in the delivery process.

Planning capacity, infrastructure, project timing, market conditions and local development patterns can affect what happens between a target and an approval. Finance, construction and occupancy come later. The data does not support a causal claim about any one factor.

Use target and approval intensity for different decisions

For planning and policy

Report both the target count and the target intensity. The count shows the regional volume. The rate shows the scale of local change. Councils with high target intensity need a separate check of planning capacity, infrastructure and delivery conditions.

For development and property

Do not treat a high target as evidence that a specific site is feasible. Test the planning controls, infrastructure constraints, market assumptions and approval pathway for the site. Track approvals, commencements and completions as separate measures.


The practical question is whether delivery conditions match the target

The data does not show that The Hills or Wollondilly will build the most homes. It shows that their 2024 to 2029 targets are large relative to their current housing base. Raw targets alone are therefore not enough. Councils, planners and development teams must test whether planning capacity, infrastructure, project feasibility and delivery systems can support the scale of change.

Approvals, commencements and completions should then be tracked as separate measures. A high-intensity target is a signal to investigate the delivery conditions. It is not evidence that delivery is assured.

Methodology, limitations and sources

Four steps separate policy targets from approval activity

The first three steps calculate target intensity. The fourth step uses official 2025 ABS Building Approvals data stored in our database as a separate measure.

  1. Record targets

    Record the 33 housing targets from Figure 46.

  2. Record homes

    Record each 2026 Homes value from Appendix D.

  3. Calculate intensity

    Divide each target by its housing base and rank the results.

  4. Add approvals context

    Use a read-only query to sum 12 monthly ABS values stored in our database.

Data and calculation steps

Sydney Plan targets

We recorded the 33 five-year targets from Figure 46 on page 66 of The Sydney Plan. The values equal the published Sydney total of 263,400 homes. We kept the published council names and target period. We did not estimate or replace any target.

2026 housing baseline

We took the 2026 Homes value from the first page of each council's housing profile in Appendix D. We checked all 33 values against the official profiles. We divided each five-year target by 2026 Homes and multiplied the result by 100. We ranked the unrounded results, then displayed one decimal place.

2025 ABS approvals

The Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes the monthly Building Approvals observations stored in our database. Our read-only analysis tools summed total_dwellings from January to December 2025 for the same 33 LGAs. Each council had all 12 monthly values. The evidence packet records the query checksum, period, cohort and caveats. The article gives aggregate council results only.

Limitations

  • Five-year housing targets are policy targets, not forecasts or guarantees.
  • The 2026 Homes values are strategic-planning baselines, not live dwelling counts.
  • Building approvals are not commencements, completions or occupied homes.
  • Calendar-year 2025 approvals do not match the July 2024 to June 2029 target period. We do not present them as target progress.
  • Major projects, timing, reporting revisions and local conditions can change LGA approval results.
  • The analysis does not assess parcel-specific controls, development feasibility, infrastructure readiness or market demand.
Key findings

What the data shows

  • The Hills' target of 23,300 homes equals 28.9% of its 2026 housing base, the highest target intensity in Sydney.
  • Wollondilly's raw target ranks 21st by count, but it ranks second by target intensity at 23.4%.
  • Across the ten highest-intensity target councils, 2025 approvals ranged from 0.5% to 5.1% of the housing base. That range does not measure progress against the targets.
Research scope

What we analysed

Sources and scope
We used Figure 46 of The Sydney Plan, the 33 council profiles in Appendix D and official 2025 ABS Building Approvals data. Our database stores the ABS observations used for the approvals calculation. The analysis covers all 33 councils and keeps targets separate from approvals.
Comparison method
For each council, we divided its 2024 to 2029 target by the 2026 Homes value and multiplied by 100. We ranked the unrounded results. We also summed the 12 monthly ABS approval values for 2025 and divided that total by the same housing base.
What it cannot establish
The comparison shows the scale of each target and one year of approval activity. It does not measure feasibility, infrastructure, target progress, commencements, completions or the effect of planning reform.
Change record

What would trigger a review

  • The NSW Government revises the 2024 to 2029 LGA housing targets
  • The Sydney Plan publishes a replacement Appendix D or revised 2026 Homes baseline
  • ABS revises a displayed 2025 LGA building-approval observation
Jurisdiction
Sydney Region, New South Wales
Publication status
published
Sources checked
25 August 2026
Internal technical reviewer
Matthew A. Fuller