The Hills and Wollondilly carry the largest targets relative to their housing base
The Sydney Plan sets five-year housing targets for 33 local government areas. The 2024 to 2029 targets total 263,400 homes. We divided each target by the council's 2026 Homes value in Appendix D so that councils of different sizes can be compared.
The Hills ranks first at 28.9%. Wollondilly follows at 23.4%. Ryde is next at 19.8%, followed by Camden at 19.0% and Burwood at 18.6%. The median across all 33 council rates is 12.1%. This is an unweighted median, so each council contributes one target-intensity rate.
The Hills' five-year target is equal to almost 29% of its 2026 housing base
The ten highest 2024 to 2029 housing targets as a share of each LGA's 2026 Homes value. This compares policy targets with housing-stock scale. It does not forecast delivery.
- 1The Hills28.9%
- 2Wollondilly23.4%
- 3Ryde19.8%
- 4Camden19.0%
- 5Burwood18.6%
- 6Liverpool18.1%
- 7Parramatta17.5%
- 8Strathfield17.4%
- 9Lane Cove17.0%
- 10Ku-ring-gai15.9%
- Highest intensity
- 28.9%
- The Hills: 23,300 target homes against 80,658 existing homes
- Second highest
- 23.4%
- Wollondilly: 5,500 target homes against 23,527 existing homes
- Sydney median
- 12.1%
- Unweighted median of the 33 council rates
High target intensity appears in several parts of Sydney
The map shows target intensity for all 33 councils. The two highest results are in different outer growth areas. Other high results appear in western, inner and northern councils.
The largest relative targets are spread across several parts of Sydney
The two highest results sit in the north-west and south-west. The next group extends through Liverpool, Camden, Parramatta, Burwood, Strathfield, Lane Cove and Ryde. Darker blue shows a larger target relative to the 2026 housing base.
- The Hills28.9%
- Wollondilly23.4%
- 10% or less
- >10% to 15%
- >15% to 20%
- >20% to 25%
- More than 25%
Sydney median: 12.1%. Target intensity is not a delivery forecast.
View all 33 mapped values
| Local government area | Target intensity | Context |
|---|---|---|
| The Hills | 28.9% | 23,300 target homes; 80,658 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Wollondilly | 23.4% | 5,500 target homes; 23,527 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Ryde | 19.8% | 11,600 target homes; 58,576 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Camden | 19.0% | 10,200 target homes; 53,762 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Burwood | 18.6% | 3,300 target homes; 17,788 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Liverpool | 18.1% | 16,700 target homes; 92,464 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Parramatta | 17.5% | 19,500 target homes; 111,215 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Strathfield | 17.4% | 3,500 target homes; 20,156 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Lane Cove | 17.0% | 3,400 target homes; 20,005 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Ku-ring-gai | 15.9% | 7,600 target homes; 47,858 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Campbelltown | 14.9% | 10,500 target homes; 70,508 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| North Sydney | 14.6% | 5,900 target homes; 40,462 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Sydney | 14.1% | 18,900 target homes; 134,394 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Blacktown | 13.4% | 21,400 target homes; 160,283 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Cumberland | 13.3% | 12,200 target homes; 92,011 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Bayside | 12.7% | 10,100 target homes; 79,543 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Canada Bay | 12.1% | 5,000 target homes; 41,159 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Canterbury-Bankstown | 10.2% | 14,500 target homes; 142,518 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Willoughby | 10.1% | 3,400 target homes; 33,513 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Georges River | 9.8% | 6,300 target homes; 64,315 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Penrith | 9.5% | 8,400 target homes; 88,466 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Hornsby | 9.4% | 5,500 target homes; 58,439 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Inner West | 8.5% | 7,800 target homes; 91,929 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Fairfield | 8.1% | 5,900 target homes; 73,288 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Hunters Hill | 7.4% | 400 target homes; 5,437 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Waverley | 6.7% | 2,400 target homes; 35,954 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Woollahra | 6.6% | 1,900 target homes; 28,951 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Randwick | 6.1% | 4,000 target homes; 65,838 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Sutherland | 6.1% | 6,000 target homes; 97,990 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Northern Beaches | 5.2% | 5,900 target homes; 114,087 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Hawkesbury | 4.6% | 1,300 target homes; 28,330 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Mosman | 3.6% | 500 target homes; 14,048 homes in the 2026 baseline |
| Blue Mountains | 1.6% | 600 target homes; 37,646 homes in the 2026 baseline |
Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, LGA 2025 boundaries, licensed under CC BY 4.0. Boundary source. Statistical boundaries are approximate and are not legal or cadastral boundaries.
Each high-intensity council faces a different delivery test
The map places high-intensity councils in different parts of Sydney. Each has a large five-year task relative to its housing base and needs separate checks of planning capacity, infrastructure, timing and market feasibility. The map cannot answer those questions.
The denominator moves Wollondilly and Burwood up the ranking
The Hills has Sydney's largest raw target and highest target intensity. The ranking changes more for other councils. Wollondilly's 5,500-home target ranks 21st by count. It ranks second against its 23,527-home base. Burwood ranks 27th by count. Its 3,300-home target equals 18.6% of its 17,788-home base, which puts it fifth by intensity.
The reverse can also occur. A council can have a large raw target but a lower target intensity because it starts with a larger housing base. Raw targets show where the largest number of additional homes is assigned. Target intensity shows where the assigned growth is largest relative to existing housing.
2025 approval intensity ranges from 0.5% to 5.1% in the leading target group
We used official 2025 ABS Building Approvals data stored in our database as a separate context check. A read-only query summed the 12 monthly values for each of the same 33 LGAs. The result includes 34,718 approved dwellings.
We divided each council's approvals by the same 2026 Homes baseline. This does not measure progress against the five-year target. It shows how one year of approval activity compares with the local housing base.
Approval intensity ranges from 0.5% to 5.1% across this group
Calendar-year 2025 approved dwellings as a share of the 2026 housing base for the same ten councils shown above. Approvals are not commencements, completions or proof of target progress.
- The Hills5.1%
- Wollondilly3.3%
- Ryde2.5%
- Camden3.0%
- Burwood0.5%
- Liverpool2.5%
- Parramatta2.7%
- Strathfield1.1%
- Lane Cove2.6%
- Ku-ring-gai1.2%
- Highest of this group
- 5.1%
- The Hills recorded 4,087 approved dwellings in 2025
- Lowest of this group
- 0.5%
- Burwood recorded 95 approved dwellings in 2025
- Sydney LGA total
- 34,718
- Approved dwellings across all 33 councils in calendar 2025
Canada Bay ranks second for 2025 approval intensity
The approvals map includes all 33 councils. Canada Bay has the second-highest 2025 approval intensity, while several high target-intensity councils have much lower approval intensity. The approval ranking does not show progress towards the target ranking.
Higher 2025 approval intensity appears in outer and inner councils
The Hills, Wollondilly and Camden are high in outer Sydney, while Canada Bay is the second-highest of all 33 councils. Darker blue shows more calendar-year approvals relative to the housing base, not progress against the targets.
- The Hills5.1%
- Burwood0.5%
- 1% or less
- >1% to 2%
- >2% to 3%
- >3% to 4%
- More than 4%
This is one year of ABS Building Approvals activity. It is not target progress, commencements or completions.
View all 33 mapped values
| Local government area | Approval intensity | Context |
|---|---|---|
| The Hills | 5.1% | 4,087 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Canada Bay | 4.3% | 1,765 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Wollondilly | 3.3% | 772 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Camden | 3.0% | 1,609 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Parramatta | 2.7% | 2,961 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Lane Cove | 2.6% | 511 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Liverpool | 2.5% | 2,335 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Ryde | 2.5% | 1,457 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Bayside | 2.2% | 1,734 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Campbelltown | 2.0% | 1,410 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Hawkesbury | 1.5% | 412 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| North Sydney | 1.5% | 613 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Sydney | 1.5% | 2,018 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Blacktown | 1.4% | 2,237 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Fairfield | 1.3% | 976 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Georges River | 1.3% | 854 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Penrith | 1.3% | 1,150 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Cumberland | 1.2% | 1,077 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Ku-ring-gai | 1.2% | 580 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Sutherland | 1.2% | 1,206 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Canterbury-Bankstown | 1.1% | 1,577 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Strathfield | 1.1% | 221 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Inner West | 0.9% | 848 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Hornsby | 0.8% | 460 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Willoughby | 0.8% | 272 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Randwick | 0.7% | 439 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Woollahra | 0.6% | 171 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Burwood | 0.5% | 95 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Hunters Hill | 0.5% | 29 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Northern Beaches | 0.5% | 523 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Waverley | 0.4% | 159 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Blue Mountains | 0.3% | 117 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
| Mosman | 0.3% | 43 approved dwellings in calendar 2025 |
Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, LGA 2025 boundaries, licensed under CC BY 4.0. Boundary source. Statistical boundaries are approximate and are not legal or cadastral boundaries.
Approval activity does not follow the target ranking
The Hills had the highest 2025 approval intensity across all 33 councils. Canada Bay ranked second even though it was outside the ten highest target- intensity councils. Burwood had the lowest approval intensity among the ten highest target-intensity councils. Project timing, local conditions, major developments and data revisions can affect these results. The comparison does not explain the difference or predict what happens next.
Target intensity and approval intensity answer different questions
Target intensity compares a policy target with the homes already in a council. Approval intensity compares one year of approved dwellings with the same housing base. A target sets an ambition. An approval records an administrative decision at a different point in the delivery process.
Planning capacity, infrastructure, project timing, market conditions and local development patterns can affect what happens between a target and an approval. Finance, construction and occupancy come later. The data does not support a causal claim about any one factor.
Use target and approval intensity for different decisions
For planning and policy
Report both the target count and the target intensity. The count shows the regional volume. The rate shows the scale of local change. Councils with high target intensity need a separate check of planning capacity, infrastructure and delivery conditions.
For development and property
Do not treat a high target as evidence that a specific site is feasible. Test the planning controls, infrastructure constraints, market assumptions and approval pathway for the site. Track approvals, commencements and completions as separate measures.
The practical question is whether delivery conditions match the target
The data does not show that The Hills or Wollondilly will build the most homes. It shows that their 2024 to 2029 targets are large relative to their current housing base. Raw targets alone are therefore not enough. Councils, planners and development teams must test whether planning capacity, infrastructure, project feasibility and delivery systems can support the scale of change.
Approvals, commencements and completions should then be tracked as separate measures. A high-intensity target is a signal to investigate the delivery conditions. It is not evidence that delivery is assured.
Methodology, limitations and sources
Four steps separate policy targets from approval activity
The first three steps calculate target intensity. The fourth step uses official 2025 ABS Building Approvals data stored in our database as a separate measure.
- Record targets
Record the 33 housing targets from Figure 46.
- Record homes
Record each 2026 Homes value from Appendix D.
- Calculate intensity
Divide each target by its housing base and rank the results.
- Add approvals context
Use a read-only query to sum 12 monthly ABS values stored in our database.
Data and calculation steps
Sydney Plan targets
We recorded the 33 five-year targets from Figure 46 on page 66 of The Sydney Plan. The values equal the published Sydney total of 263,400 homes. We kept the published council names and target period. We did not estimate or replace any target.
2026 housing baseline
We took the 2026 Homes value from the first page of each council's housing profile in Appendix D. We checked all 33 values against the official profiles. We divided each five-year target by 2026 Homes and multiplied the result by 100. We ranked the unrounded results, then displayed one decimal place.
2025 ABS approvals
The Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes the monthly Building Approvals
observations stored in our database. Our read-only analysis tools summed
total_dwellings from January to December 2025 for the same 33 LGAs. Each
council had all 12 monthly values. The evidence packet records the query
checksum, period, cohort and caveats. The article gives aggregate council
results only.
Limitations
- Five-year housing targets are policy targets, not forecasts or guarantees.
- The 2026 Homes values are strategic-planning baselines, not live dwelling counts.
- Building approvals are not commencements, completions or occupied homes.
- Calendar-year 2025 approvals do not match the July 2024 to June 2029 target period. We do not present them as target progress.
- Major projects, timing, reporting revisions and local conditions can change LGA approval results.
- The analysis does not assess parcel-specific controls, development feasibility, infrastructure readiness or market demand.